A few of you have asked what I make of this week's Surgeon Genera'ls report on secondhand smoke. Truth is, I haven't had time to read it, much less pick at it. But public health movement advocate-turned-skeptic Michael Siegal has, and begins debunking here and here. Without looking at the study, the idea that exposure to secondhand smoke for mere secounds "sets the cancer process in motion" seems so hyperbolic so as to be beyond the realm of serious discussion.Of course, that hasn't stopped the media from running with it without an ounce of skepticism.
Then again, that's all pretty obvious, no?
I should point out this bit of sliminess from our own Tom Tancredo and his minions.
David Post has it about right:
Here's what interesting, though. I think that this is, paradoxically (and possibly perversely), part of what people who are obsessed with soccer (all 1.5 billion or so of us)find compelling about the game. It has, like life, an irreducible element of capriciousness and luck. American football deals with this by sending out about 15 referees and, since that does not seem to be enough to guarantee that calls are made correctly, using instant replay in addition. It is equally absurd, though in a different, and I think peculiarly American, sort of way. Tunisia got screwed; it is too bad. But that,sometimes, is the way it goes . . .
I've always played and loved sports. I've made my career in sports. If I have any unique insight on the subject it's that random chance plays an underrated role in outcomes. In soccer it's particularly acute, and that's an appealing feature of the game.
Soccer is a classic exercise in classism and identity politics. I've been outed.
Ecuador 2, Costa Rica 0 Ecuador makes it through to the second round from the underdog's position. Their game against Germany will decide first and second seed from group A.
England 2, Trinidad & Tobago 0 T&T hold out for most of the game trying to get their second scoreless draw, but England breaks through late to get through to the second round where they will face either Germany or Ecuador. T&T are not eliminated, and have a chance to advance if they beat Paraguay in their final first round game.
Sweden 1, Paraguay 0 Sweden plays nearly three hours in their first two games without a goal, finally scoring in the 89th minute of this one. At least their defence is solid...
The radio is playing Of Montreal's The Party's Crashing Us. You can dance to it. Just thought you should know.
Spain 4, Ukraine 0 A new entry for best team performance in the first game, Spain demolishes a decent Ukraine side. Ukraine's never been in the World Cup before. Still didn't look any worse than the Americans.
Tunisia 2, Saudi Arabia 2 Two weak teams make for exciting play, as Tunisia scores the equalizing goal late in the game.
Germany 1, Poland 0Germany scores late to avoid a tie against an underachieving Polish team. Germany remains a favorite in the tournament as the home team but are unimpressive so far.
Switzerland 0, France 0 France tries to lose, Switzerland stubbornly refuses to let them.
Brazil 1, Croatia 0 Brazil beats a very good team. Seems they always find a way...but Brazil always impresses with their skill.
South Korea 2, Togo 1 Togo takes a first half lead in spite of settling on a coach about two minutes before game time. The Koreans make a second half comeback in what has to be the weakest first week matchup. How the U.S. wishes for opponents like these.
During the post game press conference yesterday, the usually reserved Bruce Arena had little positive to say, and he even called out some of his star players:
Against the Czechs, Arena said only three of his starters had good games. "I think our best players on the night were certainly Claudio (Reyna), I think Gooch (Oguchi Onyewu) had a pretty solid game. I thought Bobby Convey at least had the courage to attack. Everybody else, the performances were not good."He later added that second-half substitutions Eddie Johnson, John O'Brien and Josh Wolff played OK.
As for the team's best young players, Donovan and Beasley, Arena said, "Landon showed no aggressiveness tonight. ... We got nothing out of Beasley."
Beasley's take?
Beasley, who played 90 minutes at right midfield, pointedly criticized Arena's decision in the second half to put only three defenders in the back, five players in the midfield and two forward to help bolster the attack. The team usually plays with four defenders."I couldn't get forward. I needed to cover on the backside. I don't understand what he wants me to do. If he changes it to 3-5-2, I have to worry about the right back. It's not my fault that I couldn't get forward," Beasley said. "We just have different views."
Beasley would have preferred to go to a 4-3-3 instead of a 3-5-2 to limit the freedom that Pavel Nedved and Tomas Rosicky had on the attack. "We should have had guys running with them. That's what happened with the third goal," Beasley said. Rosicky scored his second goal in the 76th minute.
Arena has been regarded as the U.S. genius since '02. He'll have to do some to salvage his reputation this time around.
My group, Americans for Limited Government, is working with local activists in eight states to put spending cap initiatives on the 2006 ballot. Our measures would give taxpayers some control over state spending and stop out-of-control budget binges. This terrifies groups which have a lot to lose from serious spending reforms.
[...]
A showdown is brewing in Nevada, where the AFL-CIO and state teachers unions have put some muscle behind an intimidation campaign against the Tax and Spending Control campaign. Reportedly paid by the hour, these “blockers” physically surrounded petitioners while shouting, screaming, and chasing away potential signers. The situation escalated last week, with petitioners reduced to pleading for a restraining order from a Nevada judge, who promptly ordered preschool-style rules — “no touching, no yelling” — to return order to the streets.“Say you’re an elderly woman and you want to sign a petition — you don’t have a chance,” says Bob Adney, who is leading the spending-cap campaign. “And if you’re a guy who’s 6’4’’ and 300 pounds, quite frankly, you might not have a chance either. These guys are surrounding petitioners eight to one at times, and they’re not pulling punches.”
What happens in Vegas, alas, doesn’t always stay there. Our partners in Missouri, Montana, Michigan, and Oklahoma have faced similar intimidation tactics, often at the hands of local unions and, in particular, public-education unions. The goal is often to get petitioners kicked out of malls and other high-traffic areas, or even arrested — which is an interesting civics lesson indeed.
Lest you get too impressed with what local liberals can cook up at the coffee shop, however, you should know that these efforts are often well-organized, well-networked, and well-funded — sometimes on a national level. The Oregon Education Association, for instance, recently declared war on the state’s spending cap initiative.
I've been involved in some petitioning, and this sort of thing rings a bit too true for me. If you read Hammer of Truth regularly you know what I mean.
A disaster for the U.S. side. They came out flat and were down by a goal in less than five minutes. Although they showed occasional flashes of brilliance, (OK, maybe competence) they never were able to take control of the game. They've got to make a big improvement to be able to compete with the Italians on Saturday.
From the Czech point of view, this is the most impressive performance by any team in the Cup so far, and goes a way toward validating their #2 worldwide ranking by FIFA.
Australia 3, Japan 1 This was nearly the great controversy of the Cup. Japan scored in the 27th minute on a random crossing pass which happened to veer toward the goal, and as the Australian keeper moved to field it, a Japanese player collided with him. The ref called no foul and the goal was allowed.
Australia absolutely dominated play, and had multiple scoring opportunities. They appeared cursed and doomed to a loss until the last ten minutes, when the floodgates opened and three goals made the Japanese goal irrelevant.
Italy 2, Ghana 0 Italy systematically destroyed the Ghana team. It could just as easily been 5 - 0. The Americans have a tough task ahead...
Did I mention the Americans played today?
Tomorrow's USA - Czech Republic game is critical. (ed. Aren't all World Cup games critical? Uh, yeah.) The US needs a tie at least, as a loss will likely mean having to beat Italy to advance to the playoffs. Problem, the Czechs are currently ranked #2 in the world.
The game is on at 10 AM Mountain.
Holland 1, Serbia-Montenegro 0 Serbia and Montenegro are now distinct countries. The Dutch are sticking together, I hear.
Mexico 3, Iran 1 A closer match than the score indicates. Mexico scores first, but Iran has little trouble attacking and soon equalizes. Inexplicably, they seem content to sit back and play for the tie. As we say in American football, all the prevent defense does is prevent you from winning. Mexico doesn't score again until late, and then score again while the Iranians seem stunned.
Did you see the mass of Mexican fans in Germany? And some people think we have an immigration problem here.
Portugal 1, Angola 0 Portugal scores 3 and 1/2 minutes in, and holds on. I hope Mexico gives them a better game.
England 1, Paraguay 0. Solid first half from England, a bit of a let down in the second. No matter, Paraguay had few scoring chances. As for the American TV announcers, ick. Grating. Can they mention Beckham without saying 'bend it' in the same sentence?
Update: Randy Paul has previews, of groups A and B, C and D, E (the U.S.'s group), F (featuring Brasil), and G and H. So you can catch up if you need to.
Trinidad & Tobago 0, Sweden 0. A classic underdog story, and a star is born. Sweden, from the outset, clearly have more speed, more size, more talent, and better organization. T&T's goalkeeper is injured shortly before gametime, and can't start. Emergency sub goalie Shaka Hislop is bombarded all game long, and comes up big time and again.
To top it off T&T plays a man down in the second half thanks to a questionable call. The scene after the final whistle tells it all, with the Soca Warriors jubilant and Swedish fans weeping in the stands.
Argentina 2, Ivory Coast 1 The Argentines demoralize a strong Ivory Coast team with two early goals, and then hold on. One for the Africans with ten minutes to go, and several more chances go for naught. Argentina looks like a title contender.
It's on! There's more to life than politics, no? As long as I get to give you my opinion, it's all good.
Germany 4, Costa Rica 2. A comfortable win for the hosts, but some weakness ... if Costa Rice can score two how many will Brazil score? The Ticos still have hope, considering the following result from the same group:
Ecuador 2, Poland 0. What a strange game. Poland controls the pace of the game, has the better organized offense, can't score, but bounced two off the framework. Not to take anything away from the Ecuador team (what a great moment for that little country!) as they showed skills the Poles couldn't match. The race for second place in group A is still wide open. Who would think the Costa Rica - Ecuador match would be so important?
This is the best new blog I've seen lately. Enjoy.
So, what's the greater evil, to allow the legal system to ruin someone's life over a petty non-violent drug offense, or to lie, and commit perjury, in order to serve on the jury?
Jere Longman on the U.S. team and Bruce Arena, and the distinctive American style:
Arena prefers to be called a manager, however, not a coach. In that distinction lies his primary talent: building a team, in every sense of the word. He has a gift for breathing value into words that have become deflated with overuse in sports: honesty, chemistry, trust. Above all, he understands, in a way that no foreign coach could, just exactly what it means to be an American soccer player — his strengths and weaknesses, his needs and preferences, his constant battle with the realization that a player from the United States is always considered something lesser."I get the sense that Arena truly appreciates the predicament of the American soccer player," says Andrei Markovits, a professor of German studies and comparative politics at the University of Michigan and the author of a book on the development of American soccer. "These are great athletes, but they are disrespected by their peers around the world and unknown by their own countrymen. Arena understands this, and I think it gives him tremendous legitimacy."
My own view is the American players are not so far behind their foreign competitors in terms of talent...
In particular, the Americans lack a dominant goal scorer and lyrical playmaker. The last time Arena checked, Ronaldinho played for Brazil and Wayne Rooney wore the red, white and blue of England, not the United States. Basketball is played with jazzy improvisation in this country, but soccer's suburban orientation often creates a fife-and-bugle regimentation. This is why Arena bristles at suggestions by columnists and by officials within the United States Soccer Federation that the Americans should play artistically like the Brazilians or hire a Brazilian coach.
"What we're good at and why we've been successful is that we know what we are," Donovan, the American playmaker, told me. "A lot of countries pretend to be something they're not. A lot of teams like to pretend they're like the Brazilians. Well, you don't have the athletes the Brazilians do. You don't have the soccer knowledge and skill they do. We understand that. We're not the most talented team in the world, by far. But we are one of the most competitive, with the best spirit, the fittest, and with some of the best athletes. And we use that to our advantage."When Arena chews on the matter of American soccer style, he appears to have bitten into something bitter. For him, the country is too big, the melting-pot influences too various, the youth development system too disconnected from professional clubs to say that this is the way the Americans play soccer. Style will have to develop over time, if at all, Arena says. "Europe is kind of the size of the U.S. Is there one playing style in Europe?" he asks. "If we were the size of Holland, it'd be a hell of a lot easier."
But, he adds, "one day, when we get it right and become the best, it's because we did it our way, no one else's way."
The American style, as Arena sees it, is defined by an ability to adapt, to shape strategies and formations according to various factors: the players available on a particular day, the opponent, the weather. Style depends on the qualities his players possess, not on predetermined notions about how they should play.
I can hardly wait, although with the tough group the U.S. have drawn there is a very real chance of disappointment. RTWT.
H/T.
Paul Krugman's NY Times column on May 29th had this to say on the global warming debate:
Hansen was one of the first climate scientists to say publicly that global warming was under way. In 1988, he made headlines with Senate testimony in which he declared that "the greenhouse effect has been detected, and it is changing our climate now." [...]But soon after Hansen's 1988 testimony, energy companies began a campaign to create doubt about global warming, in spite of the increasingly overwhelming evidence. And in the late 1990s, climate skeptics began a smear campaign against Hansen himself.
Leading the charge was Patrick Michaels, a professor at the University of Virginia who has received substantial financial support from the energy industry. In Senate testimony, and then in numerous presentations, Michaels claimed that the actual pace of global warming was falling far short of Hansen's predictions. As evidence, he presented a chart supposedly taken from a 1988 paper written by Hansen and others, which showed a curve of rising temperatures considerably steeper than the trend that has actually taken place.
In fact, the chart Michaels showed was a fraud -- that is, it wasn't what Hansen actually predicted. The original paper showed a range of possibilities, and the actual rise in temperature has fallen squarely in the middle of that range. So how did Michaels make it seem as if Hansen's prediction was wildly off? Why, he erased all the lower curves, leaving only the curve that the original paper described as being "on the high side of reality."
Michaels, yesterday, blogging:
Well, Paul Krugman sure smeared me [...]Krugman was incensed with my July 27, 1998 testimony before the House Committee on Small Business. In it, my purpose was to demonstrate that commonly held assumptions about climate change can be violated in a very few short years.
One of those is that greenhouse gas concentrations, mainly carbon dioxide, would continue on a constant exponential growth curve. NASA scientist James Hansen had a model that did just this, published in 1988, and referred to in his June 23, 1988 Senate testimony as a “Business as Usual” (BAU) scenario.
BAU generally assumes no significant legislation and no major technological changes. It’s pretty safe to say that this was what happened in the succeeding ten years.
He had two other scenarios that were different, one that gradually reduced emissions, and one that stopped the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2000. But those weren’t germane to my discussion. Somehow, Krugman labelled my not referring to them as “fraud.”
The BAU scenario produced a whopping surface temperature rise of 0.45 degrees Celsius in the short period from 1988 through 1997, the last year for which there was annual data published by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the time of my testimony. The observed rise was 0.11 degrees.
I cited the reasons for this. In fact, the rate of carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere was quite constant–rather than itself increasing like compound interest–during the period. Ten years later, Hansen published a paper in which he hypothesized that “apparently the rate of uptake by carbon dioxide sinks, either the ocean, or more likely the forests and soils, has increased.” This was not assumed in any of his scenarios. In fact, the general hypothesis has been that, as the planet warms, the ocean takes up carbon dioxide at a slower rate.
Then, contrary to everyone’s expectation, the second most-important global warming emission, methane, simply stopped increasing. Some years have shown an actual drop in its atmospheric concentration. To this day, no one knows why.
[...]
On May 30, Roger Pielke, Jr., a highly esteemed researcher at University of Colorado’s Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, examined Hansen’s scenarios. Of the two “lower” ones, he concluded, “Neither is particularly accurate or realistic. Any conclusion that Hansen’s 1988 prediction got things right, necessarily must conclude that it got things right for the wrong reason.” (italics in original)That’s precisely the keynote of my testimony eight years ago: in climate science, what you think is obviously true can literally change overnight, like the assumption of continued exponential growth of carbon dioxide, or how the earth responds.
It's nice to see the guys are getting along so nicely.
It's also nice to see the debate played out publicly. Michaels' blog post won't have but a fraction of the readers who will see Krugman's NY Times column, but it's better than nothing.