It's a tale of two GOP blunders, and possibly the first Libertarian Party candidate elected to congress.
The backstory, for those of you who don't follow LP politics, starts with Tom Delay and blunder #1. As his political career spiraled downward and it became apparent he wouldn't escape criminal charges, he steadfastly refused to give up his Congressional seat, and even his spot on the '06 ballot. It wasn't until April of this year that he decided to give up his reelection campaign, and by that time he had already won the Republican primary for the spot. A series of court rulings prevented the Republicans from substituting another name for his on the ballot, so there is no Republican on it.
The Democratic candidate is former US Rep Nick Lampson, but he's not the only candidate on the ballot. It happens that the Libertarian Party has a candidate, Bob Smither. Smither, unlike (ahem) some LP candidates, is reasonable and well qualified. He has a Ph.D in electrical engineering, owns his own company and has taught at the Unversity of Houston for 14 years. He's also well known locally as the founder of the Laura Recovery Center, a foundation helping recover missing children. Laura is the name of Smither's daughter, who was abducted and murdered in 1997.
Texas HD 22 has voted 60 to 65% for Republican candidates in recent elections, and Smither would have an excellent chance to win if only the Republican Party would endorse him. They could limit their losses, as Smither has promised to caucus with Republicans. But (wait for it - blunder #2!) they've instead poured money toward a write-in candidate, a Houston city council member named Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Sekula-Gibbs is a modern nannyist Republican, well known for supporting the Houston smoking ban.
There has never been a write-in winner in a Texas Congressional race. With two choices already on the ballot, it is extremely unlikely Sekula-Gibbs can win here. In an ironic role reversal, Libertarians can tell Republicans to avoid wasting their votes and get behind the better candidate with an actual chance to win.
The Smither campaign, never expecting to be in this favorable position, is late in gaining donations and volunteer help. But now support is coming in from around the country. Today, Bob Barr is speaking on behalf of Smither at a campaign rally. The campaign is buying TV and Radio ads. Smither is even endorsed by professional wrestler Kane.
Does Smither have a chance? The race is hard to handicap, because there's never been one quite like this. According to Stephen Gordon, the polling averages look like this:
Nick Lampson 39% (D)
Bob Smither 20% (L)
Key Write-in Candidate 12% (R)
Undecided/Other 29%
Lampson has received and spent millions as Democrats have targeted this race for a national donation effort, but he still hasn't cracked the 40% barrier. This district doesn't really care for Democrats, it seems. The difficulties of organizing a large scale write-in candidacy makes it hard to see Sekula-Gibbs making much headway, either. So the question is, what happens to all those undecideds, who in the past have voted Republican, when they get in the booth and see only a Libertarian and a Democrat on the ballot? No one really knows.
See also a related Washington Times article here.
Posted by Walter at October 28, 2006 12:38 PM