Republicans were quite happy to see a minimal, if any, bounce in the polls for the Kerry ticket after the Dem convention. Historically the first party to hold a convention comes away with a sizable lead in the polls. Repubs seized on that as evidence that Kerry isn't an able campaigner, and Bush has an advantage when it comes to delivering the rhetoric.
I have a theory, that this is an abnormal year, with the wars and terrorism and such. I suspect that voters didn't wait for the conventions to start paying attention to politics, and there just aren't as many swing voters available this late in the campaign.
I'll be able to test my theory when we see the poll results from the Republican convention. If Bush sees a good bounce it would prove me wrong.
Posted by Walter at August 30, 2004 03:04 PMI don't think you're far off. I'll go out on a limb, though, and say that I expect a two or three point bump following the convention--which would just be the slightest padding to his very slender poll lead.
Following that, though, I expect a slow erosion in Kerry's numbers until the election. He's not proving himself to be very adept at campaigning, he's mired in issues that seem to be slowing him down, and his base isn't particularly fond of him. I think he peaked before the DNC and, barring a some catastrophic event, he doesn't have much room to grow. Bush, on the other hand, could still probably woo some people back on board.
Before the DNC, I was starting to think that the election was Kerry's to lose--and that he was working hard to lose it. Now I think we're past that tipping point where the election is back in the hands of the President.
We'll see how the convention goes, though. Obviously, I've been horribly wrong before.
Posted by: zombyboy at August 30, 2004 03:30 PM