Walter In Denver

Lightning, Golf, and Statistics

Tyler Cowen provides us with some interesting facts about lightning, including;

2. From 1959 to 1994 an average of 363 Americans are struck a year, 90 are killed.

3. The annual odds of being struck are about 576,000 to 1. The annual odds of being killed are about 2.32 million to 1. In other words, one in 87,000 bolts hits someone, one in 345,000 bolts kills someone.

4. Florida is the most dangerous state for lightning. In per capita terms New Mexico is the most dangerous state.

he lifted those numbers from a book, Life: The Odds (And How to Improve Them), by Lee Baer.

This is a subject I give special attention. New Mexico is the per capita leader but Colorado can't be far behind in human strikes. My experience is that the prevalence of dry thunderstorms in this part of the country contributes to the high rate. During the warm months thunderstorms are almost a daily occurence, and often there's little or no rain hitting the ground, so golfers and other outdoor enthusiasts just don't come inside.

The above statistics say you have less than a one-in-half-million chance of being struck, but those numbers include all the sedentary or cautious types who aren't likely to be in harm's way. My guess is the odds of a golfer in Colorado being struck are much, much higher. I found some statistics online. This site counts 16 golfers struck over the most recent ten year period, but I think they underreport. I have heard anecdotal accounts of other strikes which did not involve serious injury and are not listed on that page.
Since I work in the industry I'll take a few guesses at the number of golfers in the state and come up with *about* a one in 50,000 chance of an avid golfer being struck in a given year in Colorado. (I figured an avid golfer as averaging 50 rounds per year) That's using the low number of 16 struck golfers in a decade. I think I can come up with some more precise numbers with some more off-line research.

In any event, Denver is great place to see lightning. This insurance report lists Denver as the second most dangerous city in the US for lightning, behind only St Petersburg.

The same statistics counted three fatalities in that period. Again, that number may be low. At least one of those fatalities happened at my course while I was working. During a particularly violent storm a couple took shelter on the course under a tree, on top of a hill. He was killed instantly, but my understanding is that she never recovered from a long coma. The stats I'm using list her only as 'injured.'

Anyway, I figure the chances of getting struck by lightning here in Colorado are much higher than people think. I'm consistently amazed by the golfers I see who refuse to take shelter unless it's a downpour, and even then they don't protect themselves properly. Under a tree? On a hill? With your golf clubs? In those circumstances your odds get much worse than one in 50,000, I would think.

Posted by Walter at February 3, 2004 08:02 AM