Walter In Denver

California Recall, Seriously.

When I first looked at the recall effort in Cali, and saw several Republican candidates, I wondered how any of them could hope to beat Cruz Bustamante, who is the only mainstream Democrat in the field.
Nick Gillespie cites the Field Poll (PDF file), which shows Bustamante leading Schwarzenegger by a 25% to 22% margin.
But that's only half the story. The same poll has 37% of voters opposing the recall. I have to think that most of those voters are Davis supporters and Democratic partisans, many of whom are refusing to support any of the candidates on the recall ballot. My guess is when they are in the privacy of the voting booth they will vote for Davis' Lt. Governor, Bustamante, and his vote total will be close to that 37% figure. So any candidate that beats Bustamante will have to garner 37% or better. With only 14% undecided that will be a tough task for any of them.